From the category archives:

Market Trends - Real Estate Data for the Palm Beach County Area

Looks like more short sales and foreclosures are on the way for Palm Beach County. Diane Olick reports on the current state of the housing market.
| 06 Jul 2010 | 02:58 PM ET

URL: http://www.cnbc.com/id/38110678/

 

Just when you thought things might be turning around, the mortgage crisis takes yet another little dip to the downside.
Lender Processing Services just put out its May “Mortgage Monitor,” and some promising trends aren’t so promising anymore, specifically new delinquencies and cure rates.

While the total delinquency rate rose 2.3 percent, which is not surprising given how much is in the pipeline, the 30-day delinquent bucket jumped 10 percent. That is surprising because the that number had been coming down of late. The LPS data report says that’s because the “seasonal improvement period has expired,” but I’m not sure normal seasonal patterns really apply to this market anymore.

More likely is that home prices are not rebounding at the expected/hoped for pace, prompting more borrowers who are underwater on their loans to choose not to pay. And while the job market isn’t bleeding so much anymore, it’s not adding jobs back at the rate we need, nor is it re-instituting those full time jobs that were slashed to part-time, leaving many borrowers still “underemployed.” So the delinquency rate nationwide now stands at 9.2 percent from this particular data set, and with the rise in new delinquencies, it won’t be coming down any time soon.

 

How do I know this?

Because the report also finds that the “cure rate,” which is the rate at which bad loans actually get better, i.e. the borrowers start to pay again, is getting worse.

After a two-month decline, deterioration ratios increased, with 2.5 loans rolling to a “worse” status for every one that has improved. The number of delinquent loans that “cured” to a current status declined for every stage of delinquency, except in the “greater than six months delinquent” category. This improvement was likely the result of trial modifications made through the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) that transitioned into permanent status.

Oh good, so the HAMP program is helping “cure” those 6 month+ delinquencies. No, they’re just delaying them yet again, since we know that the re-default rate on HAMP is only rising. Forget cure and think remission.

 

Well, the report shows that both delinquency and foreclosure rates have stabilized.

The trouble is that they’ve flat lined at “historically high levels.”

And what does that mean for the rest of the world? Continued pressure on home prices. Yes, we will see a bunch of new reports this month, looking backward two months, that show slight improvements in home prices thanks to the run-up to the end of the home buyer tax credit; that’s not reality, that’s subsidy.

CNBC Special Report - The Housing Fix


 

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Did the push for the extension work? 

Courtesy Tara Steele from AgentGenius:

After strong urging from the National Association of Realtors among other industry trade groups, the Senate approved the homebuyer tax credit extension today. Previously, homes contracted before April 30th (when the tax credit expired) were required to close before June 30th in order to qualify for the credit.

Given that the lending process under current conditions cause many loans to take longer than the allotted 60 days to close, the Senate approved a proposal to extend the closing date to September 30th by a vote of 60 to 37.

According to columnist Jay Heflin of TheHill.com, the cost for extending the closing date is $140 million in this approved proposal, authored by Senators Harry Reid, Chris Dodd and Johnny Isakson. Heflin indicates that this means that “the provision reduces the deficit by $175 million over 10 years.”

The importance of this measure

The measure to extend the closing date received mixed reviews from industry insiders ranging from support to condemnation of any government intervention, but the importance of this extension is that buyers that purchased under the premise of getting a tax credit will indeed receive their credit despite a slow moving financial industry.

CM Note: The extesnion still must be passed through reconciliation by the Senate and the House. It is not law yet. If it passes it gives many pending/contingent short sales a chance to close and still get the credit.

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The Palm Beach Post

CM- Looks like a 2nd wave of short sales and foreclosures for Palm Beach County - through 2011.
June 2nd, 2010 by Kim Miller

Real estate experts predicted Wednesday that 3.5 million homes nationally will go into foreclosure this year as risky adjustable-rate mortgages written in 2005 reset and unemployment continues.

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That’s up from 2.8 million homeowners who faced foreclosure in 2009, and sets a pace that isn’t likely to plateau until late 2011, said RealtyTrac Senior Vice President Rick Sharga.

Sharga spoke Wednesday in Austin, Texas during the 44th annual National Association of Real Estate Editors conference.

“The second wave of toxic loans is about to hit,” said Sharga, whose Irvine, Calif.-based company tracks foreclosure filings nationwide. “We are going to see residential foreclosures well into 2011.”

Sharga’s panel of speakers, which included a Bank of America representative and Arizona-based mortgage modification executive, painted a bleak picture for anyone who thought the market has stabilized and that the worst of the real estate meltdown is over.

Not only will unemployment and rate resets drive foreclosures, but the panel said more people may decide that strategic defaults are the new “hip” thing to do. A strategic default is when a homeowner who owes more on their loan than the home is worth stops paying the mortgage, even if they can afford it.

About 44.3 percent of homes in Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade counties are underwater, according to a report released last month by real estate analysis firm Zillow.

At the same time, the Mortgage Bankers Association reports that one in five Florida homeowners is either seriously behind on a mortgage payment or in foreclosure _ ranking Florida No. 1 for failed or seriously delinquent home loans.

People who walk away from underwater mortgages seriously damage their credit, and can still have the bank go after them for the unpaid balance, but some borrowers are saying the risks are worth it to get out of a bad investment, said Travis Olsen, COO of Scottsdale, Ariz.-based Loan Resolution, LLC.

“As those option ARMS adjust, people are going to realize it’s just not worth it anymore,” Olson said. “This has been an economic ice age and there is a lot more to come.”

Still, just 48 percent of the homes RealtyTrac counts in its foreclosure database are underwater _ a statistic that Sharga says shows that subprime loans and unemployment are still the biggest driving factors of bank takeovers of residential properties.

Another issue that will continue to mar a real estate recovery is the hundreds of thousands of bank-owned properties that have yet to hit the market. Sharga estimated that just 300,000 of 800,000 bank-owned homes nationally are currently listed for sale. The unlisted properties are the “shadow market” that analysts have been warning could further drag down prices.

“Last year banks slowed down auctions to manage inventory,” said Sharga, who added that short sales _ where the bank agrees to accept less than what the house is worth _ will help reduce shadow inventory.

But, he warned, they won’t be enough to solve the “foreclosure problem.”

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Short sales and foreclosures will not end in Palm Beach County anytime soon.
, On Wednesday May 19, 2010, 11:50 am EDT

WASHINGTON (AP) — The number of homeowners who missed at least one mortgage payment surged to a record in the first quarter of the year, a sign that the foreclosure crisis is far from over.

More than 10 percent of homeowners had missed at least one mortgage payment in the January-March period, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Wednesday. That number was up from 9.5 percent in the fourth quarter of last year and 9.1 percent a year earlier.

Those figures are adjusted for seasonal factors. For example, heating bills and holiday expenses tend to push up mortgage delinquencies near the end of the year. Many of those borrowers become current on their loans again by spring.

Without adjusting for seasonal factors, the delinquency numbers dropped, as they normally do from the winter to spring.

More than 4.6 percent of homeowners were in foreclosure, also a record. But that number, which is not adjusted for seasonal factors, was up only slightly from the end of last year.

Stocks slid Wednesday as investors remain concerned with the European debt crisis. The rising number of mortgages also drew some attention. The Dow Jones industrial average fell more than 160 points in early trading.

Jay Brinkmann, the trade group’s chief economist, said the foreclosure crisis appears to have stabilized. Seasonal adjustments may be exaggerating the change from the previous quarter, he added.

“I don’t see signs now that it’s getting worse, but it’s going to take a while,” he said. “A bad situation that’s not getting worse is still bad.”

The number of American homeowners who have missed at least three months of payments or are in foreclosure has surged to around 4.3 million, Brinkmann estimated.

The Obama administration’s $75 billion foreclosure prevention program has barely dented the problem. More than 299,000 homeowners had received permanent loan modifications as of last month. That’s about 25 percent of the 1.2 million who started the program since its March 2009 launch.

About 277,000 homeowners, or 23 percent of those enrolled, have dropped out during a trial phase that lasts at least three months.

Economic woes, such as unemployment or reduced income, are the main catalysts for foreclosures this year. Initially, lax lending standards were the culprit. But homeowners with good credit who took out conventional, fixed-rate loans are now the fastest growing group of foreclosures.

Those borrowers made up nearly 37 percent of new foreclosures in the first quarter of the year, up from 29 percent a year earlier.

The risky subprime adjustable-rate loans that kicked off the foreclosure crisis are making up a smaller share of new foreclosures. They made up 14 percent of new foreclosures in the January-March period, down from 27 percent a year earlier.

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Bank of America will start foreclosing on 45,000 homes per month, up from 7500, by the end of the year according to HousingWire.com. This signals a change in how banks are handling foreclosures/short sales and may bring some of the much talked about ’shadow inventory’ onto the market.

Two major banks are expecting major increases in foreclosures, by the end of 2010.

According to the Irvine Housing blog, Bank of America (BAC: 18.6201 -0.21%), which currently forecloses on 7,500 homes every month will see that number rise to 45,000 by December 2010 as one senior executive pointed out at a recent trade show. However, a spokesman for BofA told HousingWire, he could not confirm the numbers and they do not reflect a public position of the bank.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM: 46.04 -0.22%) is forecasting bigger foreclosure numbers in the coming months. According to a presentation at the end of February, JPMorgan expects the amount of real estate owned (REO) properties in its portfolio to reach between 33,000 to 45,000 in Q410. By comparison, in Q409, REO inventories were at 23,100.

A property becomes REO after it forecloses and is repossessed by the bank. While those without access to the big bank REO vaults are left to speculate the exact count, many in the industry believe that an expertise in how to liquidate these properties will prove vital to a recovery.

BofA does anticipate a rise in foreclosure activity through the coming months as homeowners slip into delinquency, fail to qualify for or fall out of loan modification programs. The spokesperson said while BofA is preparing for contingencies, they will not go public with any projections as the focus remains to prevent as many foreclosures as possible through both its private modification program and the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP).

According to the latest figures from the US Treasury Department, BofA placed 24% of the more than 1m HAMP-eligible loans into active trial or permanent modifications.

Wells Fargo (WFC: 32.145 -0.85%) declined to forecast future foreclosure levels. Citigroup (C: 4.62 -0.43%) did not respond immediately to inquiries.

 

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The Certified Distressed Property Institute has a new white paper out on the new HAFA program.

cdpe-white-paper-on-hafa

To see if you qualify for a HAFA short sale go to my Florida Home Aid website and take the HAFA qualification survey www.FloridaHomeAid.com.

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Credit Suisse Recast Chart

It is entirely possible that the housing crisis in Palm Beach County could keep going straight through the end of 2012 according to the new chart from Credit Suisse. The number of Arm, Option Arm, and Alt A loans that will reset in 2010, 2011, and 2012 is enormous. Many of these homes are too far underwater to refinance, and no government intervention short of massive principal forgiveness will help.  Over $1.4 Trillion of loans nationwide will recast in the next 3 years.

As long as interest rates stay extremely low, the recasts may not be that bad, but as soon as rates start moving up…even a little…watch out. Expect a continuation of short sales and foreclosures for the next few years.

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How Big Banks Are Making Record Profits - Video

by Chris Melson on January 29, 2010

Borrowing from Daddy to Loan to Mommy and keeping the interest…..

http://vimeo.com/9032719

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Region battered by foreclosures;  2010 to be tough

By Paul Owers, Sun Sentinel

January 14, 2010

 

More than 100,000 homeowners in Broward and Palm Beach counties faced foreclosure last year, up 42 percent from 2008, RealtyTrac Inc. said Thursday.The outlook for 2010 appears just as grim as residents struggle to make mortgage payments amid job losses and salary cuts.

Broward County had 69,633 borrowers in some stage of foreclosure in 2009, compared with 47,387 in 2008. Broward had Florida’s fifth-highest foreclosure rate, at one in every 12 properties.

In Palm Beach County, 30,870 homeowners received a default notice during 2009, compared with 23,399 in 2008. One in every 21 Palm Beach County homes was in some stage of foreclosure.

For the year, Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade counties had the nation’s 10th-highest foreclosure rate among metro areas with populations of 200,000 or more.

“There are not any indications that the foreclosure picture will be any different in 2010 than it was in 2009,” said Greg McBride, senior financial analyst with Bankrate.com in North Palm Beach. “The unemployment rate doesn’t do justice to the number of people working part time instead of full time or those who have been re-employed at a significantly lower rate of pay.”

Florida had the nation’s third-highest foreclosure rate, with 6 percent of the homes receiving a filing during 2009. Only Nevada and Arizona were worse.

Nationally, about 2.8 million foreclosures were filed last year, up 21 percent from 2008 and 120 percent from 2007, RealtyTrac said. The Irvine, Calif.-based firm tracks default notices, scheduled foreclosure auctions and bank repossessions. Not all homeowners who get notices lose their properties.

RealtyTrac expected foreclosure filings to hit 3.5 million for the year, but the pace slowed in the second half of 2009. The firm attributes that to a backlog of properties that lenders have yet to repossess.

Another factor in the slowdown: Lenders placed troubled borrowers in trial loan modifications.

To get the three-month trial modifications, borrowers don’t have to qualify financially. But for permanent adjustments, they must fill out paperwork, and that’s when lenders determine that many homeowners don’t have the income to justify the mortgage modifications. The properties then fall into foreclosure.

“It’s like if you’re jumping through hoops, the first hoop is really, really big, but the last hoop is really, really small,” said Chris Lafakis, an economist for Moody’s Economy.com in West Chester, Pa. “Most people can’t jump through the last hoop.”

An increasing number of homeowners don’t care about modifying mortgages and instead are walking away from properties because they have no immediate hope of regaining equity lost through steep declines in home values.

“At best, they’re ambivalent and at worst they’re totally opposed to saving the property from foreclosure,” said Daren Blomquist, a spokesman for RealtyTrac.

For people who want to avoid losing their homes, the government’s Home Affordable Refinance Program will be a key, Bankrate’s McBride said.

HARP allows homeowners to refinance into fixed-rate loans at today’s low interest rates. To be eligible, the loan-to-value ratios on borrowers’ first mortgages must be 125 percent or less.

The program is set to expire in June, and not enough people know about it, McBride said.

 

 

“This is the Rodney Dangerfield of government housing programs,” he said. “The word has to get out.”

 

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Short Sale Vs Foreclosure: 39% Increase In Short Sales

by Chris Melson on January 11, 2010

Video Highlights:

* 34% Re-default Rate for Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac Loan Modifications

* 39% Increase in Short Sales Vs 14% Decrease in Foreclosure Starts

* 5% of Commercial Mortgages in Default

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